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XRP · Crypto
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Average Risk — for crypto, this band has historically returned 49.5% over the next year (68% of the time positive), across 4,367 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 121 | 17.0% | 81.0% | 100% |
Below Average Risk | 588 | 10.8% | 52.6% | 78% |
Average Risk | 662 | 10.2% | 34.1% | 63% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 81.0% median 365-day return · 100% positive · 121 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 947 |
| -11.1% |
| -33.3% |
| 38% |
High Risk | 419 | -24.1% | -44.6% | 4% |