Disclaimer

This is not investment advice

Nothing on Alpha Macro Insider is investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, or a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any security, crypto-asset, or other financial instrument. Using this site creates no advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship of any kind.

We do not know your financial situation, objectives, tax position, time horizon, or risk tolerance, and nothing published here is tailored to any individual. Decisions you make with your money are yours alone. Consider taking advice from a licensed professional in your own jurisdiction before acting.

What the scores actually measure

Every figure on this site is a descriptive statistic computed from public data — end-of-day prices from public market data providers, and economic series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).

The 0–100 score is a weighted blend of four percentiles: how far price sits from its own long-term trend, its ratio to its own 200-week moving average, its weekly RSI(14), and a cycle or drawdown measure. Each percentile ranks an asset against its own history, not against other assets and not against any forecast.

The band labels are names for score ranges — nothing more. A label is a description of where a measurement falls in its own historical distribution. It is not a prediction, not a target, not a signal, and not an instruction.

Past performance and backtests

Where historical outcomes are shown — forward-return tables, band calibration, per-asset reliability — they are measurements of what has already happened. Past performance does not predict future results. Backtested and calibrated figures carry the additional weakness that they are computed with the benefit of hindsight over a finite sample, and the methodology itself changes over time.

We publish a per-asset reliability tier precisely because the score does not work equally well everywhere. Some assets show no usable relationship at all, and at least one tracked asset is deliberately left unscored because every component of the model inverts on it. That disclosure is part of the product, not a footnote to it.

Data accuracy

Data is obtained from third-party sources and is provided “as is”. It may be delayed, incomplete, revised after publication, or wrong. Prices are not retroactively adjusted for corporate actions such as stock splits, and economic series are routinely revised by their publishers after first release. We run automated gap and adjustment checks, but we do not warrant that any figure shown is accurate, current, or complete.

Risk

All investing carries risk, including total loss of capital. Crypto-assets in particular are highly volatile, are largely unregulated in many jurisdictions, and can lose all value. Nothing on this site reduces those risks or should be read as suggesting it does.

No regulated activity

Alpha Macro Insider is a publisher of market data analysis. It is not registered or licensed as an investment firm, investment adviser, broker-dealer, or asset manager in any jurisdiction, and it performs no regulated activity. It holds no client money, holds no client assets, and executes, arranges, or transmits no orders.