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XLY · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Below Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 9.3% over the next year (78% of the time positive), across 6,299 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 508 | 7.8% | 21.0% | 93% |
Below Average Risk | 636 | 4.0% | 14.1% | 93% |
Average Risk | 513 | 3.0% | 12.7% | 87% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 21.0% median 365-day return · 93% positive · 508 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 700 |
| 2.1% |
| 8.9% |
| 76% |
High Risk | 367 | 1.4% | 5.6% | 67% |