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Price (log)
Risk Score
Below Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 9.2% over the next year (78% of the time positive), across 6,224 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 508 | 7.9% | 21.0% | 93% |
Below Average Risk | 636 | 4.2% | 14.1% | 93% |
Average Risk | 512 | 3.0% | 12.7% | 87% |
Elevated Risk | 682 | 2.1% | 9.2% | 78% |
High Risk | 352 | 1.4% | 5.8% | 70% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 21.0% median 365-day return · 93% positive · 508 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.