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Price (log)
Risk Score
Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 6.6% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 6,132 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 478 | 6.1% | 12.4% | 95% |
Below Average Risk | 557 | 3.1% | 5.2% | 75% |
Average Risk | 637 | 0.6% | 4.1% | 64% |
Elevated Risk | 682 | 2.1% | 8.3% | 79% |
High Risk | 336 | -0.6% | 3.2% | 62% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 12.4% median 365-day return · 95% positive · 478 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.