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Price (log)
Risk Score
Below Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 9.2% over the next year (78% of the time positive), across 6,224 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 643 | 2.8% | 10.0% | 80% |
Below Average Risk | 621 | 1.2% | 5.2% | 74% |
Average Risk | 492 | 0.7% | -1.2% | 42% |
Elevated Risk | 358 | 0.0% | -2.3% | 36% |
High Risk | 383 | 2.5% | -7.3% | 24% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 9.9% median 365-day return · 80% positive · 642 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.