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Price (log)
Risk Score
Below Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 9.2% over the next year (78% of the time positive), across 6,224 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 403 | 5.1% | 10.8% | 93% |
Below Average Risk | 711 | 2.1% | 5.5% | 81% |
Average Risk | 551 | 0.3% | 3.0% | 68% |
Elevated Risk | 520 | 0.3% | 2.7% | 63% |
High Risk | 505 | 1.0% | 4.0% | 76% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 10.8% median 365-day return · 93% positive · 403 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.