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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 7.9% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 7,616 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 373 | 9.7% | 36.2% | 97% |
Below Average Risk | 529 | 8.5% | 26.1% | 89% |
Average Risk | 656 | 5.9% | 22.5% | 90% |
Elevated Risk | 765 | 4.4% | 21.8% | 86% |
High Risk | 366 | 2.1% | 19.7% | 71% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 36.2% median 365-day return · 97% positive · 373 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.