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XLI · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
What historically came next.
Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 6.5% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 6,162 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 251 | 12.9% | 37.3% | 98% |
Below Average Risk | 606 | 5.6% | 12.1% | 84% |
Average Risk | 622 | 1.0% | 7.4% | 66% |
Elevated Risk | 814 | 3.0% | 13.7% | 77% |
High Risk | 431 | 1.6% | 10.0% | 73% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 37.3% median 365-day return · 98% positive · 251 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.