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Price (log)
Risk Score
Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 6.6% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 6,132 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 251 | 12.9% | 37.3% | 98% |
Below Average Risk | 606 | 5.6% | 12.1% | 84% |
Average Risk | 622 | 1.0% | 7.4% | 66% |
Elevated Risk | 813 | 3.1% | 13.7% | 77% |
High Risk | 397 | 1.7% | 9.8% | 71% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 37.3% median 365-day return · 98% positive · 251 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.