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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 7.9% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 7,616 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 338 | 9.3% | 47.1% | 92% |
Below Average Risk | 618 | 3.8% | 6.7% | 74% |
Average Risk | 533 | 1.4% | -2.2% | 45% |
Elevated Risk | 818 | 2.7% | 9.1% | 64% |
High Risk | 383 | 1.5% | 5.0% | 61% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 47.1% median 365-day return · 92% positive · 338 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.