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XLE · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
High Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 4.0% over the next year (61% of the time positive), across 4,327 observations. Outside crypto this score identifies strong entries far more reliably than exits. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 410 | 2.8% | 29.8% | 62% |
Below Average Risk | 427 | 0.4% | -0.9% | 48% |
Average Risk | 473 | 5.2% | 12.4% | 65% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 29.8% median 365-day return · 62% positive · 410 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 927 |
| 1.9% |
| -0.5% |
| 48% |
High Risk | 487 | -2.9% | 2.5% | 57% |