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Price (log)
Risk Score
High Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 4.2% over the next year (61% of the time positive), across 4,171 observations. Outside crypto this score identifies strong entries far more reliably than exits. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 410 | 2.8% | 29.8% | 62% |
Below Average Risk | 427 | 0.4% | -0.9% | 48% |
Average Risk | 462 | 4.3% | 11.2% | 64% |
Elevated Risk | 904 | 1.9% | -0.7% | 47% |
High Risk | 487 | -2.9% | 2.5% | 57% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 29.8% median 365-day return · 62% positive · 410 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.