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Price (log)
Risk Score
Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 6.6% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 6,132 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 159 | -0.7% | 29.7% | 83% |
Below Average Risk | 336 | -6.3% | 12.3% | 62% |
Average Risk | 357 | 7.6% | 31.8% | 88% |
Elevated Risk | 657 | 5.1% | 17.1% | 74% |
High Risk | 310 | 2.7% | 17.3% | 88% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 29.7% median 365-day return · 83% positive · 159 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.