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XLC · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Low Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 18.5% over the next year (88% of the time positive), across 4,426 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 159 | -0.7% | 29.7% | 83% |
Below Average Risk | 336 | -5.0% | 12.3% | 62% |
Average Risk | 357 | 7.5% | 31.8% | 88% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 29.7% median 365-day return · 83% positive · 159 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 657 |
| 5.1% |
| 17.1% |
| 74% |
High Risk | 344 | 2.7% | 16.1% | 80% |