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Price (log)
Risk Score
Average Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 6.6% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 6,132 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 280 | 9.0% | 20.7% | 97% |
Below Average Risk | 643 | 3.4% | 10.9% | 81% |
Average Risk | 722 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 53% |
Elevated Risk | 791 | 2.1% | 7.4% | 58% |
High Risk | 254 | 0.9% | -0.6% | 49% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 20.7% median 365-day return · 97% positive · 280 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.