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XLB · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Elevated Risk — for sector ETFs, this band has historically returned 8.0% over the next year (67% of the time positive), across 7,686 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 283 | 9.0% | 20.6% | 97% |
Below Average Risk | 674 | 3.4% | 11.0% | 82% |
Average Risk | 722 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 53% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 20.6% median 365-day return · 97% positive · 283 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 791 |
| 2.1% |
| 7.4% |
| 58% |
High Risk | 254 | 0.9% | -0.6% | 49% |