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VYM · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
High Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 7.4% over the next year (68% of the time positive), across 3,811 observations. Outside crypto this score identifies strong entries far more reliably than exits. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 418 | 7.3% | 25.3% | 94% |
Below Average Risk | 555 | 1.4% | 5.3% | 80% |
Average Risk | 586 | 2.5% | 6.5% | 73% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 25.3% median 365-day return · 94% positive · 418 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 688 |
| 1.6% |
| 8.0% |
| 71% |
High Risk | 477 | 1.9% | 7.1% | 67% |