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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 357 | 7.7% | 23.1% | 100% |
Below Average Risk | 524 | 4.8% | 17.0% | 89% |
Average Risk | 521 | 4.3% | 10.4% | 81% |
Elevated Risk | 849 | 3.7% | 13.6% | 82% |
High Risk | 439 | 2.3% | 12.0% | 65% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 23.1% median 365-day return · 100% positive · 357 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.