Loading asset detail…
SPY · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Average Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.3% over the next year (80% of the time positive), across 5,585 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 357 | 7.7% | 23.1% | 100% |
Below Average Risk | 524 | 4.8% | 17.0% | 89% |
Average Risk | 521 | 4.3% | 10.4% | 81% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 23.1% median 365-day return · 100% positive · 357 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 851 |
| 3.6% |
| 13.7% |
| 82% |
High Risk | 471 | 2.3% | 12.5% | 67% |