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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 630 | 5.7% | 17.2% | 97% |
Below Average Risk | 617 | 1.1% | 4.8% | 80% |
Average Risk | 535 | 2.5% | 4.6% | 66% |
Elevated Risk | 572 | 1.4% | 6.7% | 64% |
High Risk | 335 | 0.9% | 4.0% | 58% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 17.2% median 365-day return · 97% positive · 629 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.