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RUT · Index
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.7% over the next year (76% of the time positive), across 7,663 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 505 | 9.2% | 18.4% | 91% |
Below Average Risk | 755 | 0.6% | 5.5% | 63% |
Average Risk | 558 | 0.8% | 7.4% | 67% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 18.4% median 365-day return · 91% positive · 505 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 701 |
| 2.2% |
| 3.5% |
| 54% |
High Risk | 205 | 2.1% | 4.0% | 57% |