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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 505 | 9.2% | 18.4% | 91% |
Below Average Risk | 755 | 0.6% | 5.5% | 63% |
Average Risk | 558 | 0.8% | 7.4% | 67% |
Elevated Risk | 697 | 2.2% | 3.4% | 54% |
High Risk | 174 | 2.6% | -4.9% | 49% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 18.4% median 365-day return · 91% positive · 505 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.