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QQQ · ETF
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Below Average Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 11.3% over the next year (82% of the time positive), across 5,891 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 371 | 7.8% | 33.3% | 94% |
Below Average Risk | 567 | 7.7% | 26.0% | 88% |
Average Risk | 594 | 6.1% | 20.0% | 89% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 33.3% median 365-day return · 94% positive · 371 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 841 |
| 3.8% |
| 20.6% |
| 84% |
High Risk | 351 | 2.2% | 20.3% | 73% |