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Price (log)
Risk Score
Average Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.3% over the next year (80% of the time positive), across 5,584 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 371 | 7.8% | 33.3% | 94% |
Below Average Risk | 567 | 7.7% | 26.0% | 88% |
Average Risk | 594 | 6.2% | 20.0% | 89% |
Elevated Risk | 824 | 3.8% | 20.4% | 83% |
High Risk | 334 | 2.2% | 20.3% | 72% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 33.3% median 365-day return · 94% positive · 371 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.