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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 409 | 8.1% | 28.6% | 90% |
Below Average Risk | 560 | 6.4% | 26.0% | 84% |
Average Risk | 560 | 6.1% | 16.0% | 82% |
Elevated Risk | 845 | 3.7% | 19.7% | 79% |
High Risk | 315 | 2.8% | 19.7% | 71% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 28.6% median 365-day return · 90% positive · 409 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.