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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 236 | 7.5% | 28.1% | 92% |
Below Average Risk | 595 | 5.3% | 17.1% | 89% |
Average Risk | 532 | 4.2% | 14.9% | 91% |
Elevated Risk | 808 | 3.5% | 7.5% | 78% |
High Risk | 567 | 2.4% | 5.2% | 78% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 28.2% median 365-day return · 91% positive · 235 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.