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ETH · Crypto
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Low Risk — for crypto, this band has historically returned 155.9% over the next year (96% of the time positive), across 368 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 51 | 33.9% | 27.2% | 76% |
Below Average Risk | 618 | 16.5% | 3.8% | 51% |
Average Risk | 1122 | 0.6% | 43.4% | 71% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 27.2% median 365-day return · 76% positive · 51 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 1041 |
| 2.0% |
| -14.0% |
| 42% |
High Risk | 165 | -10.5% | -63.2% | 0% |