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Price (log)
Risk Score
Below Average Risk — for crypto, this band has historically returned 65.9% over the next year (71% of the time positive), across 3,192 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 51 | 32.7% | 27.2% | 76% |
Below Average Risk | 618 | 16.5% | 3.8% | 51% |
Average Risk | 1122 | 0.6% | 43.4% | 71% |
Elevated Risk | 1005 | 2.0% | -12.2% | 43% |
High Risk | 155 | -10.5% | -63.6% | 0% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 27.2% median 365-day return · 76% positive · 51 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.