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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 434 | 7.1% | 19.8% | 98% |
Below Average Risk | 655 | 3.4% | 9.8% | 82% |
Average Risk | 648 | 3.2% | 8.7% | 82% |
Elevated Risk | 714 | 2.5% | 9.9% | 74% |
High Risk | 239 | 1.9% | 6.4% | 64% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 19.6% median 365-day return · 98% positive · 432 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.