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Price (log)
Risk Score
Elevated Risk — for ETFs & indices, this band has historically returned 10.4% over the next year (75% of the time positive), across 7,566 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 586 | 5.6% | 17.4% | 97% |
Below Average Risk | 538 | 3.6% | 10.4% | 86% |
Average Risk | 530 | 2.3% | 9.4% | 85% |
Elevated Risk | 708 | 3.0% | 8.6% | 78% |
High Risk | 327 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 55% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 17.4% median 365-day return · 97% positive · 586 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.