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Price (log)
Risk Score
Below Average Risk — for crypto, this band has historically returned 65.9% over the next year (71% of the time positive), across 3,192 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 76 | 62.2% | 141.1% | 95% |
Below Average Risk | 558 | 0.8% | 60.1% | 82% |
Average Risk | 878 | -0.4% | 109.3% | 73% |
Elevated Risk | 1133 | 6.9% | 22.3% | 60% |
High Risk | 306 | -4.4% | -27.1% | 19% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 141.1% median 365-day return · 95% positive · 76 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.