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BTC · Crypto
Each component is a percentile of this asset against its own history.
Price (log)
Averages and Bollinger bands describe where the price has been. They are not a forecast.
Risk score
A count of six technical indicator states on daily closes. It describes the current state of the chart. It is not a forecast, not advice, and unlike the risk score it has no calibration.
What historically came next.
Below Average Risk — for crypto, this band has historically returned 65.9% over the next year (71% of the time positive), across 3,192 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Band | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 76 | 62.2% | 141.1% | 95% |
Below Average Risk | 558 | 3.8% | 60.1% | 82% |
Average Risk | 878 | -0.4% | 109.3% | 73% |
Elevated Risk |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 141.1% median 365-day return · 95% positive · 76 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.
A state is held until the value moves back past its threshold by a small margin, so a value can sit just inside a band while its state has not changed yet.
| 1159 |
| 6.9% |
| 19.3% |
| 58% |
High Risk | 326 | -4.4% | -28.3% | 18% |