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Price (log)
Risk Score
Below Average Risk — for crypto, this band has historically returned 65.9% over the next year (71% of the time positive), across 3,192 observations. Forward-return windows overlap, so treat these medians as indicative, not precise.
| Risk Score | Samples | Median 90d | Median 365d | Win 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Low Risk | 12 | 28.2% | 185.0% | 100% |
Below Average Risk | 769 | 13.6% | 133.5% | 94% |
Average Risk | 1069 | 8.4% | 55.6% | 71% |
Elevated Risk | 898 | -1.6% | -11.7% | 42% |
High Risk | 121 | -21.0% | -44.3% | 10% |
Test how buying this asset below a chosen risk score would have played out.
Readings below score 20 → 185.0% median 365-day return · 100% positive · 12 entries
Green bands mark when the score was below your threshold. Overlapping forward windows and a survivor-only universe — past performance isn't a guarantee.